Open-Raise Sizing Theory
Covers modern open-sizing theory in the 2.2x-3x window: what a raise size buys (fold equity, pot-building with a range advantage) and what it costs (more lost when the open gets 3-bet or outplayed). Explains wh
Assumptions: 100bb 6-max online cash, no rake unless stated.
The node
Open-Raise Sizing Theory is a preflop lesson, so the first discipline is to name the node before judging the hand. The node is the position, previous action, effective stack, and table format. If one of those inputs changes, the answer can change even when the two hole cards stay identical. This lesson sits inside RFI Foundations, whose job is: What raise-first-in means, why open-raise-or-fold beats limping, and a position-by-position walk through the site's canonical RFI charts from UTG to the small blind.
The curriculum scope for this exact lesson is: Covers modern open-sizing theory in the 2.2x-3x window: what a raise size buys (fold equity, pot-building with a range advantage) and what it costs (more lost when the open gets 3-bet or outplayed). Explains why later positions can size down — a 2.2-2.5bb BTN open with 76s risks less while still pressuring the blinds — while the SB should size up to 3-3.5bb with a hand like KTo because it plays the whole hand out of position and wants the BB folding immediately. Works a third example contrasting a 2.5bb UTG open with 99 against a hypothetical 4bb open, showing how oversizing turns a fine open into a bloated OOP pot when called. The quiz should test the standard sizing window by position, why the SB sizes largest, and the trade-offs of min-raising versus 3x. That scope is not background decoration. It defines the borders we care about, the common mistake we are trying to remove, and the chart family that should be opened before any instinctive play is trusted.
A strong preflop player does not memorize slogans like "play tight" or "be aggressive" and then force every spot into them. He asks a narrower question: what is my default against this exact action? In this lesson the default is anchored to rfi.UTG. The selected chart contains 42 grid labels, which is 226 raw starting-hand combinations, or about 17.0% of all 1,326 possible two-card holdings. That number matters because a range with twenty labels and a range with eighty labels are not merely different by style; they apply pressure to completely different parts of the opponent's distribution.
The top of the chart is easy to respect: AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, 99, 88, 77, 66, 55, 44, 33. The bottom is where money leaks: T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, 54s, AKo, AQo, AJo, KQo. Border hands are not permission slips to splash around. They are the hands that barely survive the chart's requirements because position, fold equity, blockers, playability, or price gives them enough support. If the setup is worse than the chart assumes, border hands are the first hands to leave.
Baseline before adjustment
The baseline answer is intentionally boring. Start with the chart. If the hand appears in the raise, call, 3-bet, 4-bet, or shove bucket for the node, that is the first candidate action. If it does not appear, folding is the first candidate action. This rule protects you from the most expensive preflop bias: upgrading a hand because it has a pretty shape. KJo, QTo, A9o, 76s, and A5s can all be excellent or poor depending on the node. None of them is self-justifying.
The next check is equity realization. Hands do not receive their preflop equity automatically. In position, a hand can check back, control pot size, and realize more of its share. Out of position, the same hand faces more barrels and has fewer profitable thin calls. Deep stacks reward speculative hands because the payoff when they hit is large. Short stacks punish those same hands because the hidden payoff disappears and raw all-in equity takes over. The chart assumes a default stack and a default game texture; your job is to notice when reality is outside that frame.
The third check is domination. Offsuit broadways are the usual trap because they make one pair with a kicker that looks playable but loses large pots to the stronger hands continuing against you. Suited aces and suited connectors often earn chart slots with a different logic: they block premium hands, keep nut potential, or cover boards the high-card portion of the range misses. That does not mean they are always played. It means their value comes from more than top-pair showdown strength.
Worked examples
- 1.Preflop: CO opens to 2.5bb, BTN holds a premium and chooses the highest EV preflop line.
- 2.Decision point: Hero applies the chart baseline first, then adjusts only for stated stack depth, position, and opponent tendency.
Analysis
BTN with Ks Kd is used here to separate card appeal from range discipline. The correct preflop answer starts from the named node in the site's charts, then checks price, realization, domination, and squeeze exposure before any exploit is added.
- 1.Preflop: CO opens to 2.5bb, BTN has position and 100bb stacks with the blinds still behind.
- 2.Decision point: Hero applies the chart baseline first, then adjusts only for stated stack depth, position, and opponent tendency.
Analysis
BTN with 5h 5s is used here to separate card appeal from range discipline. The correct preflop answer starts from the named node in the site's charts, then checks price, realization, domination, and squeeze exposure before any exploit is added.
In the first example, the key question is whether hero's hand belongs to the charted continue region or only looks close because it has familiar ranks. A correct answer may be aggressive, but it is not aggression for its own sake. It is aggression that either gets value from dominated continues, denies equity to hands behind, or wins dead money often enough to compensate for the times the play is called or re-raised.
In the second example, the same discipline runs in the opposite direction. If a hand's profit depends on position, implied odds, or closing the action, removing one of those supports can turn a chart call into a fold. This is why preflop mistakes feel small but compound violently. A two-big-blind loose call does not stay a two-big-blind error when it creates a dominated top-pair pot, a reverse-implied-odds stack-off, or a squeeze spot that should never have existed.
The quantitative checkpoint
A 2.5bb open trying to win the 1.5bb blinds needs folds more than 62.5% of the time to show immediate profit if treated as a pure steal. That does not mean every open must win that often, because real hands also have equity when called. It does explain why late-position opens can be wide: position plus fold equity lets hands below raw showdown strength make money. A 7.5bb in-position 3-bet over a 2.5bb open attacks 4bb of dead money and needs about 65.2% immediate folds as a pure bluff. Real 3-bets need less than that when they have blockers, equity, or postflop playability, but the number keeps bluffing claims honest.
Blind-defense prices also reshape decisions. If the button opens to 2.2bb, the big blind often calls 1.2bb to contest a pot that already includes the open, the small blind, and his own blind. That discount is why the big blind defends hands that would be folds from every other seat. But a discount is not a license to continue trash. The defending hand still must realize enough equity out of position against a range that keeps initiative.
Practical rules for this lesson
First, identify the exact chart node. Do not say "I have ace-jack"; say "I have AJo in the HJ first in," or "I have AJo on the button facing a CO open," or "I have AJo in the big blind facing UTG." Those are different poker problems. Second, mark whether the hand is top, middle, or border within that node. Top-of-range hands tolerate worse conditions. Border hands demand the assumptions: stack depth, position, normal sizing, and no unusually strong population signal against you.
Third, use sizing as information and as price. A min-open gives better direct odds but may not weaken the opener equally. A huge open worsens your price and often condenses the range. A small 3-bet gives attractive call odds but also keeps stacks deeper postflop; a large out-of-position 3-bet denies more equity but risks more when it runs into the top of range. The correct response is rarely "same chart, no thought." It is "nearest chart, then adjust."
Fourth, separate chart deviations from emotional deviations. A chart deviation has a sentence behind it: "the blinds fold 75%, so I widen the button steal," or "this pool almost never 4-bet bluffs, so I overfold the weakest continues," or "we are 40bb effective, so the small-pair flat loses set-mining support." An emotional deviation sounds like "I was card dead," "they cannot always have it," or "this hand is too pretty." Only the first category belongs in a strategy file.
Common errors
The first error is treating the chart as a list of favorite hands rather than a map of situations. A hand can be a raise-first-in, a fold against an early open, a call against a late open, and a 3-bet bluff against a steal, all without contradiction. The second error is ignoring the players behind. Cold calls and loose opens become worse when aggressive players still have a chance to squeeze. The third error is using 100bb charts at 30bb or 200bb. Stack depth changes the value of implied odds, blockers, and one-pair hands.
The fourth error is failing to record misses precisely. "I misplayed preflop" is not review. "I called KJo on the button versus UTG; chart wants fold because domination and squeeze exposure are too high" is review. That sentence contains the node, the hand, the mistake, and the reason. It gives you a border to drill. The goal of this track is not to make every preflop decision feel obvious. The goal is to make your errors locatable, repeatable in a trainer, and small enough that postflop skill has a chance to matter.
Review checklist
Before acting, run this compact checklist: What is the exact node? What chart is closest? Is my hand top, middle, or border? Who still acts behind? What is the effective stack against each relevant opponent? Is the sizing standard, smaller, or larger? Does my hand want folds, calls, or implied odds? What population read is strong enough to justify leaving the baseline? If you cannot answer those questions, choose the lower-variance chart action. Preflop is too frequent to improvise casually.
This lesson should leave you with a concrete working habit: chart first, reason second, exploit third. The chart prevents random play. The reasoning explains why the chart's action fits the spot. The exploit changes the answer only when the table gives you a reliable reason. That order is what keeps a preflop strategy teachable instead of becoming a pile of disconnected hand opinions.
Worked examples
- 1.Preflop: CO opens to 2.5bb, BTN holds a premium and chooses the highest EV preflop line.
- 2.Decision point: Hero applies the chart baseline first, then adjusts only for stated stack depth, position, and opponent tendency.
Analysis
BTN with Ks Kd is used here to separate card appeal from range discipline. The correct preflop answer starts from the named node in the site's charts, then checks price, realization, domination, and squeeze exposure before any exploit is added.